![]() ![]() The Old Farmer’s Almanac claims an overall accuracy of about 80 percent for its winter forecasts its staff calculates this based on whether they accurately predict the direction of departure from normal for precipitation and temperature in one city for each region they evaluate. ![]() The formulas, both brands say, are still, at heart, the work of each publication’s founder despite some changes over the past two centuries. “When you have so many things out there, and some of them are in conflict or totally opposite, which ones do you use?” Hu says.īoth almanacs claim authority from the long heritage of the formulas they use. And for the southern swath of the country, the agency offers even odds of cooler, average or warmer temperatures. But the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration says that the northern U.S. Its long-standing competitor, the Old Farmer’s Almanac, is also all-in on snow and cold across much of the U.S. Whether we are dreaming of a white Christmas, dreading another season of shoveling snow or just hoping for a break from a scorching southern summer, few of us manage to be apathetic about what winter will bring.įor the coming winter, the Farmers’ Almanac predicts that cooler temperatures and higher snowfalls will return to the U.S. The widespread interest in forecasts that stretch ever farther into the future is particularly evident as the temperatures in North America start to drop and visions of the coming winter begin to dance in people’s head. “Even the Weather Channel now goes out, and they do it. “Maybe 10 years ago, people would be like, ‘Well, how can you make long-term predictions like this?’ And yet now there are so many copycats out there that make their long-range forecasts as well,” Duncan says. ![]() Forecasts have improved so steadily that they are now producing 30-day, 90-day and even one-year outlooks that offer a sense of how temperature and precipitation over time may compare with norms. These organizations, aware of the constraints of their predictions, used to shy away from forecasting more than a week or two in advance. “We don’t think of ourselves as a weather company we think about ourselves as for the farmer,” says Carol Connare, editor of the Old Farmer’s Almanac, which was first published in 1792.īut the distinction is perhaps becoming fuzzier as the almanacs face the rise of seasonal forecasts produced directly by weather forecasting companies and governmental agencies. Even when we’re off, they give us a little more leeway.”Īlthough the winter weather outlooks are perhaps the almanacs’ highest-profile product, Duncan’s competitor is clear about where its allegiance lies. “I think people appreciate being prepared. ![]() “We don’t guarantee the forecast 100 percent, but I don’t know who does,” Duncan says. And unlike meteorologists, the almanacs are willing to stand by specific days-long predictions made some 18 months in advance. The publications have met that demand, says Sandi Duncan, an editor of the Farmers’ Almanac, which began printing in 1818. Today people want long-range forecasts for a whole host of purposes, however: to plant commercial crops, of course, but also to plan for energy usage, guide the insurance industry, schedule weddings and vacations, and more. “Farmers, over time, have developed a certain kind of trust with their product and information,” he says. So why do people trust the almanacs so deeply?*Īmong farmers, the almanacs are highly valued and respected because of their long history, says Steve Hu, an agricultural climatologist at the University of Nebraska–Lincoln. Both have been published for more than 200 years, and both highly protect their secret forecasting formulas, which they say have stood the test of time.ĭo the almanacs perform better than weather companies and agencies that provide nationwide forecasts that are built on the latest atmospheric science and supercomputer models? No. There are actually two competing almanacs: the Farmers’ Almanac and the Old Farmer’s Almanac. They also deliver a region-by-region weather forecast for an entire year, notably the coming winter, which everyone from farmers to city dwellers can plan their businesses and lives around. Every autumn these publications arrive with their eclectic mix of miscellany and lore. ![]()
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